RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL SOURCES USING THE HISTORICAL DOCUMENT QUALITY METHOD (HDQM)

Abstract

Historical sources and data play an important role in studies related to extreme events, natural
hazards, and environmental sciences. However, it is crucial to ensure the reliability of these sources and
the data they contain, in order to avoid errors of interpretation, misleading information, and incorrect
conclusions. In this paper, we present an innovative method to assess the quality of historical documents
called the Historical Document Quality Method (HDQM). The HDQM works in three steps: historical
critical analysis, decision tree and evaluation of four criteria, and assigning a final score using expert
systems. This method is user-friendly, easy-learning, operational, and functional. It has been developed
through an interdisciplinary work between historians, engineers, and mathematicians. The results obtained
using the HDQM are very consistent, with models developed to assign a final score to historical documents
having a coefficient of determination close to 1. This method can be particularly useful for studies on
extreme events, where the reliability of historical sources and data is essential